Japanese insurance company recently started offering insurance for bitcoin exchange http://www.coinfox.info/news/6633-japanese-company-offers-new-insurance-for-bitcoin-exchanges . Doesn’t that mean that there is more than zero market potential? For #1 and #2 of your argument surely lower the risk of the loss, but that does not make the probability to zero. #3 may be true in terms of raising risk money from crowd but there is still missing components of claim handling if you widen the scope of cover not just for exchange attack but for individual loss due to stolen password or some sort of social engineering. I think there is a potential for providing specialised claim handling as an oracle service to existing prediction markets. I agree that trying to raise millions with just a white paper is quite shocking.

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